Research on Driving Forces of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Cement Production and Fossil Fuel Combustion in China

Abstract

As China has become the biggest emitter of greenhouse gas in the world, it is important to investigate factors affecting CO2 emissions and how these vary with growth in China. A Tier 1 IPCC method is used to estimate CO2 emissions from cement production and fossil fuel combustion in China to construct a panel data set with 27 provinces over 15 years. The results suggest a global cubic relationship between per capita CO2 emissions and per capita real GDP. Based on extrapolation, we expect a presence of the environmental Kuznets curve in the future of China. A model predicts that per capita CO2 emissions will fall when per capita real GDP exceeds 60972.06 RMB (1995 currency). Then, separate estimation on three regions with different levels of economic development suggests that economic growth significantly affects per capita CO2 emissions in the Eastern and Middle regions but not the Western region.