Development of Integrated Urban System Models: Population Life-transitions, Household location, and Vehicle Transaction Decisions

Abstract

This research presents the development of a life-oriented, agent-based integrated transport land use and energy (iTLE) model. A life-oriented theory and perspective is adopted to accommodate life-trajectory dynamics of key longer-term household-level decisions within the integrated urban modelling system. This study develops the following components of the proposed integrated urban model: population synthesis, vehicle ownership level synthesis, life-stage transition, residential location, vehicle transaction, and mode transition. The modelling and computation procedure of the integrated model addresses evolution of location choice and vehicle transaction over the life-course of the households in response or anticipation to decisions and changes at different life-domains. One of the mechanisms adopted to accommodate the temporal dimension of such multi-way decision interactions is through introducing lead and lag events. Advanced econometric models are developed to accommodate the effects of repeated choices during the life-course of the households, as well as capture unobserved heterogeneity. For example, a dynamic vehicle transaction model is developed utilizing a latent segmentation-based logit (LSL) modelling technique. Moreover, residential location and vehicle transaction are assumed to have an underlying process orientation. For instance, residential location is conceptualized as a two-stage process of: 1) mobility, and 2) location choice. Methodologically, the second stage of location choice is modelled as a two-tier process of location search and choice, by utilizing a fuzzy logic-based modelling method and LSL modelling technique. Vehicle transaction is modelled as a process of first time purchase, acquisition, disposal, and trade. Finally, this research implements a proto-type version of the iTLE model for Halifax, Canada. The proto-type generates a synthesis-based population and vehicle ownership level information for the base year 2006. The model microsimulates life-stage transition, residential location, and vehicle transaction for a 15-year period of 2007-2021. This research also presents validation of the iTLE proto-type model results, and predicts the evolution of life-stage, mobility, location, and vehicle transaction for the Halifax population. This simulation modelling system would be useful for analyzing complex, integrated land use and transport policy scenarios.