Effects Of Climate Change On Wind Loading For Structural Design

Abstract

Structural design requirements need to be updated to account for the projected increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme wind events due to climate change. This study investigates the effects of climate change on the wind loading design parameters used in the National Building Code of Canada. The projected changes to wind speed statistical distributions and the magnitude of uncertainty in these projections are assessed using state-of-the-art climate change models. Three new wind loading design methods that can be used under climate change are developed based on the "ultimate return period" and Load and Resistance Factor Design methods. Analyses of these three methods, proposed herein, demonstrate that the "Hybrid Ultimate Return Period" (HURP) method performs the best under climate change, since its probabilities that the HURP design wind speeds are exceeded over the 50-year design lifetime are most consistent across Canada, compared to the other two methods.