Developing Species Distribution Models for Wood Turtle (Glyptemys insculpta) in Atlantic Canada

Abstract

The wood turtle, Glyptemys insculpta, is listed as threatened federally in Canada and provincially in Nova Scotia (NS) and New Brunswick (NB). Historic surveying for G. insculpta in these provinces has been arbitrary and geographic knowledge gaps persist. To address these gaps, this research developed species distribution models for NS and NB using Maxent software, G. insculpta occurrence data, and environmental data relevant to the species’ ecology. Resulting important model variables included ‘Elevation’, ‘Distance to Alder’, and ‘Watercourse Density’. The model outputs were used to guide field surveys, which recorded G. insculpta occurrences at twelve new sites. In NS, the model output’s prediction of G. insculpta distribution overlapped with 80.4% of identified core habitat, but only 4.6% of this predicted distribution was within protected areas. The findings will contribute to conservation of this at-risk species by predicting its distribution, and in doing so, inform future survey efforts and conservation decisions.