Two Steps Forward, One Step Back: Navigating China's Approach in the South China Sea from 2009 to 2024

Abstract

This dissertation investigates China’s strategic logic in the South China Sea from the late 2000s to the early 2020s. It challenges conventional theoretical prediction of "linear expansion" of a rising power by analyzing how Beijing calibrates maritime assertiveness while managing systemic risks. The research argues that China employs a pragmatic "push-and-pull" dynamic, a cycle of assertive expansion followed by tactical restraint. Through a comparative analysis of China’s interactions with Vietnam and the Philippines, the study also demonstrates China's strategic approach in the South China Sea: restraint toward Vietnam through institutionalized channels, and stronger unilateralism toward the Philippines, often followed by moderation under international pressure. These findings reveal a "two steps forward, one step back" trajectory aimed at consolidating regional influence without triggering unified resistance or direct conflict. Ultimately, the dissertation highlights that Beijing tests its power limits and recalibrates in response to external resistance.