ENERGY TRANSITION IN SMALL COMMUNITIES UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Abstract

Transitioning small and remote communities to renewable energy is critical for achieving global net-zero targets. These communities, reliant on costly and emission-intensive fossil fuel systems, require tailored renewable energy frameworks and robust planning strategies to ensure reliable, sustainable, and cost-effective energy solutions. This dissertation addresses these needs through two interconnected themes: designing renewable energy systems specifically suited to local conditions and strategically planning transitions to net zero under uncertainty. In the first theme, advanced optimization models are developed to assess hydrogen's potential as seasonal energy storage, aligning social, economic, and environmental objectives. Results demonstrate significant potential for hydrogen to enhance energy reliability, reduce fossil fuel dependence, and support sustainability. By 2050, strategic deployment of hydrogen and wind power is expected to double capacity, substantially decreasing reliance on external grid connections. Further analyses cluster remote Canadian communities based on resources, climate conditions, and energy demand patterns, revealing hydrogen storage's effectiveness in mitigating seasonal energy fluctuations. Acknowledging the critical role of uncertainties in renewable energy transitions, the second theme introduces multi-stage stochastic robust optimization techniques to handle short-term energy variability and long-term uncertainties such as technology cost developments and evolving carbon policies. The findings highlight that phased investment strategies considerably outperform single-phase transitions, enhancing economic and environmental outcomes. Additionally, assessing the feasibility of waste-to-energy technologies alongside other renewable energy systems is crucial for boosting overall system reliability. Specifically, pyrolysis emerges as an adaptable, cost-effective solution, significantly lowering hydrogen production costs and effectively integrating waste management with broader renewable energy strategies. The thesis delivers frameworks for informed, resilient, and efficient renewable energy transitions in small, remote communities.