The Architecture of Contingency: Rethinking Canadian Schools for a Population in Flux

Abstract

Recent fluctuations in public-school enrolment have produced simultaneous pressures of overcrowding and underutilization within Canadian school boards. Declining fertility and immigration-driven population growth represent opposing demographic forces that have made forecasting school-aged cohorts increasingly difficult. School boards typically address overcrowding with portable classrooms and underutilization through consolidation or boundary expansion; however, both conditions compromise educational outcomes and student well-being. Statistical and spatial analyses identify pronounced enrolment volatility within the Ottawa-Carleton District School Board, where in 2024, 12.9% of schools operated below 60% utilization and 35.4% exceeded capacity. The Barrhaven region of Ottawa exhibits particularly high secondary-level overcapacity, with John McCrae SS and Longfields-Davidson Heights SS operating at capacities of 142% and 111%, respectively. These conditions reveal limitations in conventional capacity management models and motivate a more adaptable school infrastructure. This thesis, therefore, proposes a modular construction strategy that enables instructional space to expand or contract incrementally with changes in enrolment.