Longitudinal Modelling of Households’ Vehicle Transaction and Type Choice Decisions

Abstract

Longitudinal modelling of vehicle ownership is limited in the literature of ownership models. Temporal variation of households’ long-term vehicle ownership decisions can be modelled by considering longitudinal information of the households. Utilizing households’ longitudinal vehicle history information, this thesis develops ownership state models, where durations of the households’ no-car ownership state and subsequent transient ownership states are evaluated. Moreover, this thesis examines the vehicle type choice behaviour of a household purchasing its first vehicle (i.e. first-time vehicle owner) by terminating the no-car ownership state, and vehicle type choice behaviour of the transient vehicle owner households at repeated vehicle ownership events. One of the unique features of this research is that it examines the effects of life-cycle events on the vehicle ownership decisions. Finally, this research evaluates future vehicle type choice behaviour using a comprehensive set of alternative fuel vehicles by anticipating a future policy scenario of hypothetical gas price increase.