Sensitivity Analysis of a Road Clearing and Relief Supplies Distribution Model for Vancouver Island in the Event of a Cascadia Megathrust Earthquake

Abstract

Southwestern British Columbia is one of the most seismically active regions in Canada because of its proximity to the Cascadia Subduction zone at the interface between the North American and the Juan De Fuca tectonic plates. Over the last few years, several studies have been pursued to find ways to improve the preparedness of the communities in the region in the event of a major Cascadia earthquake. One such project led to the development of a Road Clearing and Relief Supplies Distribution (RCRSD) model. With data available for a Cascadia earthquake scenario, it can be used to find an optimal way to clear post-disaster debris on roads and route supplies to stranded communities on Vancouver Island. The RCRSD model uses a large number of assumptions and produces non-deterministic outputs. Therefore, performing sensitivity analysis is necessary to improve and validate the robustness of the model. In this study, the inputs to the model were classified and with a chosen set of input parameters extensive sensitivity analysis was conducted on the RCRSD model. The results of the model were tabulated, mapped, and analyzed to determine patterns in road clearing and relief supply activities. These patterns can be helpful in finding critical roads, regions, and communities on the island that may be key factors in proactive emergency planning for a megathrust earthquake.