Tuna today, taking from tomorrow: An economic assessment and policy analysis of Indian Ocean Tuna Commission management of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares)

Abstract

In 2015, the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission (IOTC) assessed that the yellowfin tuna (YFT) stock was overfished and subject to overfishing, meaning the population would decline without effective management. Since then, the recommended maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of YFT in the Indian Ocean has decreased by 17%, while catches have remained the same. This is despite IOTC Resolutions instituting catch limits. As States prioritize short-term economic benefits, I looked to understand how this influences the economic outlook of the fishery from 2014-2022 by valuing actual catches versus catch at the recommended MSY using import price data for fresh, frozen, and canned markets. Additionally, I looked to understand actions taken and level of compliance with YFT measures taken over this period. These analyses occur in 3-year increments coinciding with the IOTC’s YFT stock assessments in 2015/2016, 2018, and 2021. As time has progressed, the gap between economic outputs of actual catch and catch at recommended MSY continues to grow, with varying levels of compliance to new management measures. As this occurs, IOTC decision-making has become more complex as Member States attempt to maximize their portion of a decreasing catch and enact measures which do not reach the scientifically advised threshold necessary for YFT recovery. The lack of an allocation regime, uncertainties surrounding stock assessments and catch reporting, and the potential socioeconomic impacts from recovery efforts exacerbate these issues. As the IOTC continues to debate the best course, they may risk a stock crash that causes economic devastation, particularly for Coastal States.