Optimizing Circular Supply Chains for Novel Food Production Processes - A Case Study of Cellular Agriculture

Abstract

Cellular agriculture (cell ag) has emerged as a promising alternative to conventional animal agriculture, offering potential environmental, ethical, and social benefits. Yet, commercialization faces critical challenges - two of which are predicting market demand for novel products like cultured meat and developing cost-effective, sustainable supply chains. This research addresses these gaps through four interconnected studies. First, a review of the circular supply chain (CSC) modelling literature identifies inconsistencies in the definition of CSC's, limited integration of uncertainty and multi-criteria decision-making. Second, a system dynamics (SD) model is developed to forecast early consumer adoption of cultured meat under varying price, quality, and marketing scenarios, incorporating consumer heterogeneity, awareness, and repeat purchasing behaviour. Third, opportunities to embed circular economy principles—such as industrial symbiosis, waste valorization, and localized production—into cell ag supply chains are explored, outlining potential improvements to the Quadruple Bottom Line (QBL) for this nascent industry. Finally, a bi-objective mixed-integer linear programming (BO-MILP) model is proposed to design an optimal circular supply chain network that minimizes cost and carbon emissions while integrating byproduct-based media inputs. Together, these studies provide a holistic framework linking consumer adoption modelling with sustainable supply chain design, offering strategic insights for industry stakeholders and policymakers seeking to scale cellular agriculture in an economically viable and environmentally responsible manner.