Assessing climate-impact risk to Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus melodus) breeding sites in Nova Scotia, Canada

Abstract

The Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus melodus) is a shorebird assessed as 'Endangered' by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada. They nest in coastal habitats and are vulnerable to climate change impacts associated with sea-level rise and increased storm events. A mixed methods approach was utilized to assess these potential impacts in Atlantic Canada. This included statistical modelling of temporal trends in Piping Plover in relation to storms, analysis of satellite imagery of breeding habitat in relation to a single storm event, and an estimation of future sea-level rise and its impact on habitat. A weak relationship was found between Piping Plover abundance and storm frequency in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. The majority of habitat within Nova Scotia was resilient to impacts from Hurricane Dorian. However, sea-level rise projections predicted that ~82% of Piping Plover habitat in Nova Scotia will be below sea level by 2100.