Estimating Maximum Expected Time of Rescue: Focusing on Transit Time of Marine Resources to Incidents in the Canadian Artic
Abstract
In recent years, global warming in Canada and Arctic regions has received more attention
due to observed increases of 1.7 °C, and 2.3 °C from 1948 to 2016 in the mean annual
temperature for Canada and its northern regions, respectively. The rise in temperature,
especially noticeable in the Arctic, has caused changes to the amount of sea ice, resulting
in a surge of activities and denser maritime shipping traffic. This in turn raises concerns
about heightened risks of incidents and accidents. Addressing this concern, our study
focuses on the Maximum Expected Time of Rescue (METR) in the Canadian Arctic. The
Polar Code, the International Maritime Organization’s main regulatory guidelines for
shipping safety in the Arctic, mandates ships to carry at least 5 days' worth of sustenance
and survival equipment for all People on Board (POB). The objective of this work is to
determine whether this 5-day timeframe is sufficient for rescue services to respond to ships
in distress in the Canadian Arctic. This research specifically aims to examine the responding
vessels’ Transit Times (TT), denoted as Maximum Expected Time of Rescue –Vessel
Transit (METR-VT). To achieve this, a simulation model is developed to estimate the
duration from departure of maritime rescue assets until they arrive at the incident locations
under varying conditions, including ice coverage, different times of the year, bathymetry,
and the different ice-going capabilities of responding vessels. This study utilizes two main
marine resources: government vessels and nearby non-governmental vessels (referred to as
vessels of opportunity). By employing a simulation model for ship routing in ice, along
with data from the Automatic Identification System to obtain insights into the spatio-temporal patterns of available responding vessels the METR-VT is determined for
the Canadian Arctic marine environment. This study estimates suitable METR-VT values
considering different groups of responding vessels, across various zones in the Canadian
Arctic, calculated for each two-week period throughout the year. A software tool is
developed that would enable users to calculate the highest METR-VT considering multiple
zones and across different time windows. Additionally, the results indicate that the 5-day
METR in the IMO Polar Code is often inadequate at certain times of the year mostly in
western zones of the Canadian Arctic with dense ice coverage.