Probabilistic Seismic Slope Stability Design

Abstract

Deterministic slope stability design charts for cohesive-frictional (c-φ) soils have been used by geotechnical engineers to examine the effects of earthquakes on slopes by identifying the critical seismic loading which brings the slope to a state of limit equilibrium. However, seismic slope stability design charts have yet to be extended to probabilistic analysis. In this study, the seismic stability of slopes, modeled using a two-dimensional spatially random c-φ soil, is studied using finite element analysis. Probabilistic analyses of seismically loaded slopes are performed by Monte Carlo simulations using the Random Finite Element Method (RFEM). A series of new slope stability design charts are provided that consider the influence of the spatial variability of soil for seismically loaded slopes with φ = 20°. The charts may be used in the safe design of slopes subject to seismic loading, providing estimates of the probability of slope failure without requiring computer simulations.