Forecast new home sales and prices: a case study for the United States

Abstract

A nation’s housing sector has been the cornerstone of economic activity over the past several years. Right now, the economy of the United States is in a recession. To recover the economy, activity in the U.S. housing market deserves more attention, especially the new home market. Economists in the United States believe that if new home sales could keep increasing in the future, recovery of the whole housing market, even the whole economy in the U.S., would be hopeful. To bring the hope closer to the reality, forecasting changes in the new home market is important. An accurate forecast can provide useful information for the future, so that proper planning can take peace. The purpose of this thesis is to look for an appropriate method which can accurately forecast changes in new home sales and prices in the U.S. housing market, so that policy makers base decisions on reliable information.