Provincial Allocations of Canada’s 2030 INDC and a 2-Degree Scenario Target Using a Multi-Criteria Weighted Sum Model

Abstract

At the 2015 COP21 Paris Agreement, Canada restated its commitment to a 2030 target of a 30% reduction from 2005 level emissions as an Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). At this agreement, nations in attendance submitted INDC’s with the goal of limiting global temperature increase to 2 degrees above pre-industrial times, and a further goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees (Government of Canada, 2016). However, even if every nation reaches their INDC target the global temperature increase will still far exceed the 2-degree target (UNEP, 2017). In recent history, it has been the provinces that have taken the first steps towards action against climate change. Despite this, provincial “goals”1 in aggregate will fall short of Canada’s 2030 INDC (Boothe and Boudreault, 2016a). The objective of this paper is to use multiple burden sharing rules to allocate reduction targets which cumulatively meet Canada’s 2030 INDC as well as a 2-degree ‘fair share’ target. The burden sharing rules of grandfathering, efficiency, and ability to pay are incorporated into a multi-criterion based weighted sum distribution model and the implication of their weightings are examined through a sensitivity analysis. The role of Alberta in meeting Canada’s INDC is explored by comparing the average required reduction allocated per province when Alberta is a part of the model’s allocations and when Alberta’s reductions are equal to their provincial goal. The allocations given under this model were shown to have several desirable qualities, and the results may be used to help guide further research into the use of burden sharing rules in assigning provincial reduction targets or allocations for a cap and trade program. Key Words: Emissions Allocations, Climate Policy, Burden Sharing, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis