Exchange rate and price stability in Argentina: A general equilibrium approach.
Date
1994
Authors
Wang, Baotai.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Dalhousie University
Abstract
Description
Instability and high inflation were two chief features of Argentine economic activity from the mid-1970s to the early 1990's. Several stabilization programs were successively put in practice in this period but without lasting success. This study combines theoretical analysis and empirical research to discuss these issues. The main objective of this study is to construct a computable general equilibrium (CGE) short run model to describe the functioning of the Argentine economy with focus on the inflationary process. In addition, the estimated structure of the model is used to simulate the impacts of alternative stabilization policies under some postulated structural changes and/or within "possible" environments different from the historical ones.
The short-run CGE model, based on the work of Klein-Ortiz-Rao (1991), is divided into six sectors which include forty nine endogenous variables and sixteen exogenous variables. Two types of inflation propagation mechanisms, namely the non-accelerating mechanism and the accelerating mechanism, are highlighted and described in the specification of the model. It is shown that, under certain conditions, the pressure of inertial inflation can be magnified through the operation of the accelerating mechanism.
Policy simulation experiments, though restricted by the short-run nature of the model, suggest that: (1) the economy could not have been stabilized by using the preannounced devaluation rate during 1978-1981; (2) economic performance could have improved in 1985-1989 under a modified Austral Plan but, with the altered structure, there would still be a severe currency appreciation; (3) the Convertibility Law based program is very successful in arresting inflation and eliminating the budget deficit, but it is by no means free from side effects, such as inducing shortages in the money supply and high interest rates.
Thesis (Ph.D.)--Dalhousie University (Canada), 1994.
The short-run CGE model, based on the work of Klein-Ortiz-Rao (1991), is divided into six sectors which include forty nine endogenous variables and sixteen exogenous variables. Two types of inflation propagation mechanisms, namely the non-accelerating mechanism and the accelerating mechanism, are highlighted and described in the specification of the model. It is shown that, under certain conditions, the pressure of inertial inflation can be magnified through the operation of the accelerating mechanism.
Policy simulation experiments, though restricted by the short-run nature of the model, suggest that: (1) the economy could not have been stabilized by using the preannounced devaluation rate during 1978-1981; (2) economic performance could have improved in 1985-1989 under a modified Austral Plan but, with the altered structure, there would still be a severe currency appreciation; (3) the Convertibility Law based program is very successful in arresting inflation and eliminating the budget deficit, but it is by no means free from side effects, such as inducing shortages in the money supply and high interest rates.
Thesis (Ph.D.)--Dalhousie University (Canada), 1994.
Keywords
History, Latin American., Economics, Commerce-Business., Economics, Finance.