A RISK ANALYSIS AND RELIABILITY FORECASTING METHOD FOR WIND ENERGY SYSTEMS

Abstract

Two of the most significant challenges facing the world in the 21st century are improving energy security and mitigating the effects of climate change. To counter these challenges, renewable energy sources, such as wind, are considered a possible solution and have gained importance worldwide. With many jurisdictions setting high wind-energy targets for the coming decades, risks have grown as the demand for new wind turbines has outstripped the growth of its suppliers. Integrating significant amounts of wind-electricity into existing networks raises reliability concerns due to variable nature of wind. A method for estimating the reliability of wind-energy systems is presented which is a combination of a forecasting method (probabilistic approach) and RL (Resistance-Load) technique (risk-based approach), demonstrated through a case study, and verified using real-time wind farm data.