A Climate Change Vulnerability and Data Gap Assessment of Arctic Marine Species in the Tallurutiup Imanga National Marine Conservation Area

Abstract

Arctic ecosystems are warming at twice the rate of oceans worldwide, resulting in a loss of sea ice and available habitat for many marine species. While new conservation policies are required to protect the increasingly vulnerable marine species in Northern Canada, the data gaps associated with Arctic marine ecosystems make it difficult to prioritize which species need to be protected, along with the best methods to do so. This project assessed the vulnerabilities of several cetaceans, pinnipeds, and fish present in the Tallurutiup Imanga National Marine Conservation Area to climate change under the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario to determine which species will be most at risk by 2055. A digital literature review was conducted to obtain life history information for each species, which was then used on two trait-based vulnerability assessment frameworks to determine the risks of climate change related impacts. Results showed that Arctic char, Arctic cod, and Atlantic walrus are most sensitive to climate change with vulnerability scores of 16/16 (Very High), while all other species were given a score of 12/16 (Very High). Cetaceans were found to be the most data rich taxon overall, followed by marine fish and then pinnipeds. The most pressing data gaps include outdated or nonexistent abundance measurements and a lack of natural mortality rates in marine mammals, making it difficult to assess the intensity of anthropogenic disturbances. The creation of more well-defined management groups, coupled with more frequent abundance and population age structure surveys would be beneficial to filling in these data gaps. For fish, a lack of knowledge about reproductive behavior, timing, and locations were the most pressing data gaps, which can be resolved through tracking seasonal movements and observation of suspected areas of importance.

Keywords: Eastern Canadian Arctic; Tallurutiup Imanga National Marine Conservation Area; Data-Gap Analysis; Climate Change; Vulnerability Assessment; Sea-ice; Marine Mammals; Marine Fish.