An Estimation of the Threshold Phillips Curve Model: Evidence from G7 Plus Australia

Abstract

This paper mainly focuses on one of the new specifications of Phillips curve family, the threshold Phillips curve. By estimating the threshold model using G7 plus Australia countries quarterly data, the threshold effect is confirmed only by U.S. and Canadian Phillips curves. No strong evidence for the threshold effect was found among other countries. Moreover, the estimation results for both standard and threshold Phillips curve model indicate weak trade-o relations between inflation and unemployment. Policy makers should review Phillips curve as a forecasting tool with extra caution. Future studies can focus on specific country's threshold effect testing with detailed explanation.