Violence, Illicit Crops and Development in the Colombian Pacific Region

Abstract

The Colombian Pacific region is a strategic hub for the illicit drug trade, due to its geographical suitability for cultivation and access to the Pacific Ocean. This study focuses on the relationship between the rise in coca cultivation and multiple violent outcomes such as homicides, displacement, extortion, and kidnapping, differentiating urban-rural divide within the Colombian Pacific during the transitional phase of the peace agreement. Analyzing a data panel covering 178 municipalities considering urban-rural classifications in the Pacific region from 2011 to 2021; I use OLS fixed effects, Tobit regression, and a two-stage least squares model instrumenting for coca production with the manual eradication to correct for possible endogeneity and examine causal effect on these violent outcomes. The results indicate that increases in coca cultivation in rural municipalities are associated with increases in homicides and household displacement, while there is no evidence that it has a significant effect in urban municipalities.